Monday, March 21, 2011

Middle East Current Affairs/US Foreign policy

I recently purchased a book by Michael Scheuer called Osama Bin Laden that raised some interesting points on whats currently going on in the middle east. Scheuer was the former head of the CIA's Bin Laden unit, so he's an authority on the subject. It really struck me how his view of osama bin laden really fits in with whats going on right now.

First, it's useful to draw parallels to the mujahideen of afghanistan when they fought against the Soviets, where Bin Laden was first blooded in battle. In a quick summary, what happened was that the mujahideen were able to bog down the soviet invasion with a guerilla/insurgent style warfare. Eventually, their incursion into afghanistan dragged down the russian economy until public support in Russia dropped like a rock, so they pulled out. Although the circumstances aren't exactly the same, the parallels to the wars in Iraq and afghanistan are uncanny. The insurgency has proved very difficult to eradicate, our economy recently dropped like a bomb, and we're working on plans to pull out.

The second phase of bin laden's plan (according to Scheuer) is the fall of US-backed tyrannical regimes in the middle east. Sound familiar?

I think the third phase is something along the lines of an all-out war between the US and muslims world wide, although I havent gotten to that part of the book yet haha

As to other parts of US foreign policy, I really think that it's to the US's benefit to distance itself from Israel and Taiwan. In the case of Israel, I dont think that the state is legitimate in the first place. The land it's on was unjustly taken. Yes, jewish people have been historically brutalized, but wrong + wrong doesnt make it right to take their land. Support for Israel is also against the US's oil interests. We're in the middle east for it's oil, and it so happens that everyone who has oil hates israel. It makes no sense for us to support them.

For taiwan, I think it's in the US's interests to support a peaceful reconciliation between mainland china and taiwan. Domino theory is defunct, supporting Taiwan means placing an unnecessary source of tension between US and mainland China. And the economic benefits of backing mainland china are enormous. As part of negotiations, the US would be able to win tons of concessions from the Chinese, for a promise of not going to war. And it should be peaceful reconciliation simply because I dont think itd be right for all of taiwan to be slaughtered.


2 comments:

  1. Three great scholarly articles that you should read if you're interested in the middle east/iraq/afgh wars:

    "Next Stop Baghdad?" By Kenneth Pollack (http://www.cfr.org/iraq/next-stop-baghdad/p4484)

    "An Unnecessary War" By John Mearshimer & Stephen Walt (http://mearsheimer.uchicago.edu/pdfs/A0032.pdf) <-- this can be contrasted with the first article

    "A Flawed Masterpiece" By Michael O'Hanlon, about the Arghanistan war strategy (http://www.brookings.edu/views/articles/ohanlon/20020501.pdf)


    These guys are brilliant, and provide some different perspectives on stuff. May or may not be right, but interesting to broaden your mind :)

    And if you find time to read even one of those (even though they're not long) along with going to class and homework, you are a better man than i :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks, I always appreciate thought provoking stuff

    ReplyDelete