The 2016 election cycle has simultaneously proved to be hilarious, outrageous, terrifying, and depressing all at the same time. On the right, we have the rise of the Donald and the fall of the establishment, embodied by the abysmal performance of Jeb! Bush. On the right we have Clinton vs. Sanders, the battle of dishonest and untrustworthy vs. the honest and trustworthy self-proclaimed socialist. It'll be hilarious when the next president, and this can be applied to literally every single candidate out there, is sworn in with a horrendous approval rating.
On the left, we have Clinton and Sanders. Regardless of whose policies you agree with more, Sanders is dangerously unpalatable to the general electorate. Even if you like his policies the most out of any candidate out there, the vast majority of people vote on the general feel they have for a candidate, kind of like playing the word association game in the ballot booth. The "socialist" moniker, as deserved as it may or may not be, is enough that it could sink the left's chance of winning against any candidate on the right in the general.
Clinton faces some serious issues in her perceived trustworthiness and establishment-ness, best exemplified by her email server scandal. She also lacks charisma in that she doesn't inspire the same level of enthusiasm among her supporters that Bernie or Trump do among theirs. Relatively few people out there, I think, would be excited by Clinton taking the White House even if she's the first female president. I think there's a strong likelihood she will win however, simply by the process of elimination.
We'll start on the right with Ted Cruz. The anti-establishment blue-collar-representin' GOP hopeful that went to Princeton, Harvard, worked as an advisor to George W. Bush, and married a Goldman Sachs banker. Take a few seconds, and go google something along the lines of "Ted Cruz Hate". Literally everyone that has had to work with Ted HATES him. Democrat, Republican, everyone. A direct quote from Lindsay Graham (R- South Carolina)- "If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial was in the Senate, nobody would convict you.". I won't spend time going into why Ted Cruz is hated, other articles out there are readily available to give more color on why. But imagine a President that has to work with a Congress where every single Congressman out there hates him on a personal, not even professional, level. Lol.
Let's dispel once and for all with this fiction that Marco Rubio doesn't know what he's doing. He knows EXACTLY what he's doing. Marco Rubio is undertaking a systematic effort to use every dollar and talking point the establishment can come up with to beat Donald Trump and mask the fact that he has no substantive experience or character to qualify him to be President.
This leaves the Donald. The confluence of forces leading to the rise of Trump makes the weather patterns of The Perfect Storm look like a sunny spring day. Since Obama took office, the right has adhered to a strategy of "massive resistance" (google that too, if you don't get the reference) where any attempt to compromise with the sitting President was tantamount to treason and grounds for excommunication. This proved fairly successful- with the aid of loudspeakers like Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, etc. the Tea Party rose to prominence despite spouting racism coated in obfuscation like Obama being a Muslim Kenyan socialist. The establishment encouraged this. Why wouldn't they? They ended up winning back both houses by refusing to disavow and even encouraging this kind of rhetoric. Now the chickens have come home to roost and now even the establishment themselves is being skewered for their perceived lack of ideological purity. This is exacerbated by the fact that any primary candidate on the right is now being subjected to this same level of scrutiny. No moderate that could potentially expand the Republican voter base can pass through the primary (even more so than in previous years).
With the Donald as the leading GOP frontrunner, there are several ways this could play out, each of which will be fascinating to watch. We could reach a brokered convention, and Donald loses. His supporters will be furious, likely believing that the establishment overruled the political will of the electorate. This could lead to some sort of permanent split in the GOP into two parties, the establishment and the tea party. With their unity dissolved, they will likely be an ineffectual political force for years to come. Donald could also win the GOP nomination, either through a brokered convention or winning outright. There is a strong likelihood he will lose the general because of his lack of appeal to moderates and independents. The GOP would stay politically unified, but greatly hurt in their capacity to win future elections, as their reputation for the white upper class christians that hates immigrants, minorities, women, and the poor (very overgeneralizing here, but you get the idea) etc. will be further ingrained into the zeitgeist. Or Donald could win it all, in which case...
...
Oh and also- Kasich is a thing, which pretty much summarizes his accomplishments in this election to date.
No comments:
Post a Comment