It's fascinating to see how the very things that fuel someone's rise to power ultimately lead to their downfall. Hitler rose to the height of German politics by demonizing Jews, Communists, and Bolsheviks. That very xenophobia that rallied the Germans around his Nazi standard ultimately led to his decision to brake Molotov Ribbentrop and invade the Soviet Union in Operation Barbarossa. This massive miscalculation of the military manpower of the Soviet Union stemmed from his belief in the superiority of the Aryan race, and ultimately led to the collapse of the Third Reich.
Donald Trump faces a similar situation now. Recent filings to the FEC show a tremendous fundraising deficit between Trump and Clinton. Trump ended May with $1.3 million cash on hand next to Clinton's $42.5 million. Trump himself has argued that this is irrelevant since he could self-fund from his personal wealth (more on this later), and his use of free/social media minimizes the need for campaign funds. Regardless of his personal wealth, these recent disclosures point to a huge organizational deficit as well. He has a total of 69 paid staffers within his campaign next to the 700 of the Clinton campaign, and he also just fired his campaign manager. Even if Trump does self fund, his lack of campaign organization will face tremendous problems coordinating community outreach programs, running get out the vote efforts, and registering new voters- things that are crucial for votes actually materializing on election day.
Trump ran and won his primary campaign on pure ego and bravado. That same ego has led to him refusing to reach out to RNC donors. and these financial problems. Reports have stated the RNC gave Trump a list of 20 donors to call for money. For anyone wondering, the process of politicians begging donors for money is exactly as humiliating as you would imagine. Trump, who ran on the premise that he doesn't need money and that he's so great "donors come to (him)", got through three calls before he gave up.
If Trump's ego refuses to let him stoop to begging for donations, his funding won't come in the levels needed to run a successful national campaign, making it more and more likely Trump will need to self fund. This is where it gets interesting.
Trump does not have the liquid cash necessary to fund a $500 million - $1 billion national campaign. He himself has mused he may need to "sell a couple of buildings" in order to self fund this campaign. If he wants to continue through this campaign, he will need to put his personal fortune on the line. It is highly likely that regardless of what happens with Trump's funding, he will lose this race. He will lose a humiliating race to Clinton on an international level, and personally pay handsomely for the privilege. possibly ending up broke with his Trump brand irrevocably associated with racism and fringe conspiracy theories. As we approach the GOP convention in Cleveland, I think this will become more and more apparent to Trump. The question is what does he do about it?
If he refuses to both solicit donations and wager his personal fortune and self fund, he will financially cripple both his campaign and Republican down-ticket efforts. This will be devastating for the GOP, potentially losing the White House, the Senate, the House, and the Supreme Court all in one election. He could self fund his campaign. This will still financially devastate GOP down-ticket races and will endanger the GOP control of the House and Senate.
He could also drop out, I'll assume with some bullshit excuse so he can save face. A key point here is whether it's before or after the nominating convention. Although the fallout will be different depending on the timing, either way the GOP would be in chaos, very likely handing all three branches of the government to the Democrats.
So what's the GOP to do? I have no idea.
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